As pocketing fabric manufacturer,we heard some news.
Recently, the decline in cotton prices has been closely linked to the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions. Industry insiders said that after China imposes tariffs, US cotton imports will decrease, while imports of Australian cotton, black cotton and West African cotton will increase. "China's 25% tariff on US cotton, the most direct impact is the increase in the cost of imported US cotton, US cotton imports will be basically stagnant, 1% tariff quota on imported cotton is lower due to lower tariff rates, and later used to purchase high-quality grade cotton, Therefore, the Australian cotton, black cotton, and West African cotton are favored. The newly added 800,000 tons of sliding tax quotas, or the relatively low price of Indian cotton." Zhuo Chuang information analyst Gao Feitang said that there is news that the Indian Cotton Association And cotton-related enterprises believe that India's cotton exports to China in 2018/19 may increase to 5 million bales, five times that of the previous year.
Gao Feitang believes that China imposes tariffs on US cotton and directly impacts US cotton exports to China, but other countries still have support for US cotton demand. "In the long run, if China's imports are diverted to other non-US cotton varieties, its limited supply will force other countries to increase imports of US cotton. Foreigners believe that China's imports of US cotton will decrease, while ICE futures may fall 70-75. The US cent will help other countries to increase imports of US cotton. Therefore, the impact of China’s tariff on US cotton exports to US cotton exports will gradually weaken over time,” Gao Feitang said.
It is worth noting that Sino-US trade friction will have a profound impact on the domestic market. "Domestic enterprises are worried about the increase in cotton price after the increase of tariffs, and the increase in the cost of downstream spinning products, which will further reduce the profit of cotton spinning enterprises and reduce the export competitiveness of textile enterprises. At the same time, the increase in domestic costs will cause resistance to the development of spinning enterprises, domestic raw cotton. Consumption will also be affected and cause a negative situation for the country." Gao Feitang said.
Gao Feitang emphasized that China, as the world's second-largest economy, has achieved rapid development since the reform and opening up. Faced with more difficulties in the future, it is inevitable that the historical development will rise. Therefore, for the vast Chinese economy, although trade friction has exerted certain resistance to the domestic economic development, China still has imaginations for its strong endurance. Therefore, the most important thing for the majority of the industry is to do a good job of risk prevention. "The persistence of Sino-US trade disputes and the uncertainty of the outcome of disputes are mainly related to the export of tariffs on US textiles and clothing, China's imports of US cotton, and other countries such as India. Whether the policy has been adjusted, thus affecting the global supply and demand pattern of cotton in the future and even China.” Zhuo Chuang, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that cotton is one of the commodities, and the persistence and uncertainty of the Sino-US dispute results for the global financial market. And the impact of changes brought about by the commodity market will be indirectly transmitted to cotton more or less. For example, the issue of crude oil brought about by the Iranian issue, the change of the RMB exchange rate, the possibility of the US dollar continuing to raise interest rates in the future, whether China's future fiscal and monetary policies will be adjusted, and whether import and export tariffs will increase whether the products will increase.
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